How does the preferential ballot affect the Best Picture race for this year?

It would seem to me that Conclave, Anora and maybe Wicked have the most to gain from this, because they are accessible, and not controversial, so will more likely to at least be in the middle of most ballots.

On the other hand, I think Emilia Perez has the most to lose, with the Brutalist also potentially dropping spaces due to being so long/less accessible (and Maybe the AI stuff, although I think that’s a bit of a storm in a teacup). Thoughts?