Back-to-back games are schedule losses
Analyzing the NBA data set from Kaggle that has 26,000 games from 2003 to 2022
The winning percentage for days rest between games:
| Days rest | Win Pct |
|---|---|
| 0 days rest | 44% |
| 1 day rest | 51% |
| 2 days rest | 52% |
| 3 days rest | 51% |
| 4+ days rest | 52% |
That includes both home and away teams, but pretty clear that a back-to-back gives an advantage to the team with more rest.
It gets even worse on the road, a back-to-back on the road for both games, the win percentage is just 39%. Here are the percentages for consecutive road games and days rest between:
| Consecutive Away | Win Pct |
|---|---|
| 0 days rest | 39% |
| 1 day rest | 42% |
| 2 days rest | 40% |
| 3 days rest | 42% |
| 4+ days rest | 46% |
Looking at back-to-back for both games at home the winning percentage is 56%, a slight decrease from the overall home game win percentage of 58%.