I created an auction draft tool that uses math to make live draft recommendations

DraftMath Screenshot

I created DraftMath, a dynamic auction draft tool that uses math to make live draft recommendations.

The idea for DraftMath came last year when I wanted to try something new with my draft. I always struggled with drafts because:

  1. I didn’t know how to apply draft research. Drafts are a dynamic situation in which things rarely go to plan. Predetermined draft strategies almost immediately go out the window.
  2. I struggle with budget balancing. There are always players later in the draft that I wish I waited for but didn’t have enough money by the time they were put up for auction.
  3. I get FOMO. After the top 3 players go off the board, I will inevitably overbid on the 4th, which usually sets me up for failure for the rest of the draft.

I wanted to find a way to consolidate all projections, research, current draft state (remaining players, budget, current drafted teams) into a single, data-driven “Draft / No Draft” recommendation in a live draft. Thus, DraftMath was born. DraftMath took all the guesswork out of draft decisions for me by grounding all decisions in analytics. I applied DraftMath last year (2023-2024 FF season) and ended a 10 year championship drought. Even though it’s a small sample size, I believe there is value in the approach and I wanted to share with the broader community.

Powering draft recommendations using VORT

All draft recommendations are powered by a new metric I created called VORT (Value Over Replacement Team). VORT takes hundreds of draft variables (evaluated player, remaining budget, current drafted players, projected points, auction values, and all available players) to create a data driven draft recommendation for each auction pick.

VORT is calculated by taking the difference between the projected points of the best available (optimal) team with the evaluated player against the projected points of the optimal team without the evaluated player. 

VORT = Optimal team with evaluated player - Optimal team without evaluated player

For example, let’s say Christian McCaffrey is up for auction with a current bid price of $80. VORT is calculated then by taking the difference between:

  • The optimal team I can create by drafting Christian McCaffrey at $80
  • The optimal team I can create by not drafting Christian McCaffrey

VORT is the sister metric of VORP (value over replacement player). However, by evaluating value at the team level, it extends the capabilities of VORP by measuring team dynamics and opportunity cost. For instance, VORP would not be able to answer the opportunity cost of drafting Christian McCaffrey at $80 (i.e., by not drafting CMC, what will I be able to do with the $80 that I save?). Additionally, the scope of VORP is limited to a single position (e.g., CMC’s replacement player will be another RB) while VORT considers the whole team. Namely, CMC’s replacement player could be another RB, another position altogether, or even multiple positions depending on the players already on your team, the remaining players in the draft, and your remaining budget. 

Results using DraftMath

As mentioned in the introduction, I have used DraftMath in just one real league scenario, which I ended up winning. My drafted lineup was:

  • QB: Josh Allen
  • RBs: JK Dobbins, Najee Harris
  • WRs: Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb
  • TE: TJ Hockenson
  • Def: Denver
  • K: RIley Patterson

Outside of that, I’ve used DraftMath in a handful of mock drafts, and in each draft, I’ve finished with the highest starting lineup projected points at ~2 standard deviations above the average each time. 

Things to consider while using DraftMath

  1. DraftMath is a value-based draft strategy. In other words, DraftMath will rarely give you the recommendation to vastly overpay for a player (i.e., spend half your budget for a single player). Still, even though it is not optimized for this approach, DraftMath can help you build your best team around this strategy.
  2. DraftMath is only as good as the data that comes in, and VORT is calculated based on projections (as any other draft strategy and recommendation tool is to a certain extent). What this means is that DraftMath provides recommendations, not rules. If the recommendation is to not draft because the VORT = -0.20 points, but you feel strongly about the player, then go get your guy. DraftMath will adjust and help you build around that. 
  3. DraftMath will not capture extraneous variables outside of projections. This includes running back durability, injury propensity, breakout stars, personnel changes, etc. Anything that cannot be factored into projections, DraftMath is not taking into account.

How to use DraftMath

I am a hobbyist programmer and have never built an application for someone beyond myself. And so while I am confident in the core mechanics of DraftMath, there will undoubtedly be bugs. With that being said, I did want to limit the amount of users in this initial launch just to make sure the whole thing doesn’t crash before allowing an undefined amount of users. And so if you’re interested in using the tool for your auction draft, leave a comment saying you’re interested or DM me and I will get you started!

DraftMath is now open to all! You can access at https://www.draftmath.com