Alaska miles sale until 3/15 probably means award chart will happen right after + deval breakpoints

Alaska is having a 70% bonus sale on miles until 3/15. While this is the highest sale we've seen form them in a while, it would be very typical corporate behavior would be to immediately rollout the devalued award chart right after.

Here's a few highlights on important routes/carriers that will or will not be impacted.

  • Starlux
    • West Coast (LAX/SFO/SEA) to TPE are all under 7k miles, so this should remain at 75k miles
    • Only consideration is if JX will release F seats as well? 110k is steep though
  • Japan Airlines
    • SEA/YVR to NRT remains at 60k for J (under 5k miles)
    • SFO/LAX to TYO moves from 60k to 75k for J (over 5k miles), will be 110k for F (rip)
    • BOS/NYC/ORD to TYO also moves from 60k to 75k for J (under 7k miles) and will go from 80k to 110k for F
      • A lot of these were offered at 80k though, so maybe saving 5k?
  • Qatar Airways
    • YUL to DOH drops (?) from 80k to 70k (under 7k miles) in J
    • JFK/BOS to DOH drops (?) from 85k to 70k in J
    • Most other US routes remain at 85k as they are within the 7k to 10k distance mark
  • Condor
    • West Coast (YVR/SEA/LAX/SFO) go from 55k to 70k (over 5k miles) in J
      • YVR is ~5025 miles, not sure how much leeway is in the calculations
    • Most other US routes should be under 5k and therefore 55k for J
  • Finnair
    • JFK/ORD to HEL drops (?) from 70k to 55k (under 5k miles) for J
    • Most other US routes are still at 70k for J
  • Qantas
    • Routes in J increase from 50k to the 85k bracket (over 7k miles)
    • Routes in J increase from 70k to 130k (over 7k miles)
  • Cathay Pacific
    • All US routes to HKG goes from 50k to 85k (now over 7k) in J, 70k to 130k for F
  • Fiji Airways
    • LAX/SFO to NAN from 55k to 75k (over 5k) in J

I ignore other partners bc they're not as popular or not worth it like BA. These are back of my hand calculations, so feel free to correct me if I made mistakes anywhere.

Overall, biggest non-losers:

  • Everywhere for Starlux
    • Note that if they launch any East Coast routes, it will be 85k (includes ORD, DFW, etc. too)
  • SEA/YVR JAL
  • JFK on Finnair and Qatar