I'm incredibly bullish on the stock. But maybe you shouldn't buy it.

I'm incredibly bullish on this stock. I think it's 10x'ing from here, and that's after having probably spent north of 2-300 hours studying the company, its financials, fundamentals, Saylors history (good and bad), his political connections, watching earnings calls, watching the bear-cases and bear-videos, reading into the regulatory landscape and macro environment surrounding this trade.

Why I recommend you perhaps don't buy it is because it's going to cause a lot of short term pain - in bursts. Pain that I'm willingly enduring because I know where it's going. Pain I also endured 2 times before since I bought my position in the end of 2023. I see many other slow, patient investors make ridiculous returns on this trade as they understand what's going on and don't act on emotions, feeling offended that they're not amassing generational wealth in 2 weeks.

That pain, if you don't know or understand why it's happening, will get you to a place where you panic-sell at a loss because 85% of redditors are (excuse my language) dumb as doorknobs.

Have you ever gone to a subreddit that discusses a topic that's within your field of expertise?

Yes, exactly... Then you know.

Most people have no clue what they're talking about.
And why would they? If we all knew everything about everything, we'd all be incredibly wealthy and succesful in all avenues of life.

The truth is that we're emotional beings and we react with knee-jerks to disappointments and irritations. For instance the disappointment of thinking you're going to "get mega rich tomorrow because someone on tiktok told you so" and then seeing your stock trade down 2%.

So what happens? You'll see your portfolio do -2% on a day BTC does +3%, a few times, and read people on this sub posting "SaYlOr IS KilLInG The SToCK" or "EaSE On The ATM goD DAmN"; you'll end up selling at a slight loss when you could at least just have bought Bitcoin, then.

And then MSTR shoots up 30% next day. Then 20%. Then you go "omg..." So you fomo in. And now it flatlines. It does nothing for a week, and we start seeing that same movement, the slight declines, the "this stock sucks" posts. And people screaming sell. So you sell. Now you get bitter. It's a scam.

A week later, the spring bounces again and unleashes all the pent up energy. 20% in a day. Then 15%. Then 20%.

You catch my drift?

These ATM sales bring down the premium significantly. We're the best performing stock in the Nasdaq this year. More than NVIDIA. More than Tesla. We are outperforming Bitcoin significantly year to date as well. By a lot. The mechanics are like loading a spring, bringing down the mnav, bringing up the BTC per share, then letting it run. Repeat.

You know what's funny? He mentioned all this in the last earnings call, if you - or anyone - bothered to spend 20 minutes doing your due diligence.

And meanwhile, Saylor's out championing the hyper-bitcoinization for all of mankind, and advising the incoming government on their to-be-established Bitcoin position. He's trying to get in before that. In January, the President of the United States announces a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, like he's promised 4 times now, and like his son Eric Trump has been hammering in his Keynote last week in Abu Dhabi. Who, by the way, has known Michael Saylor for 20 years.

If you do not understand this stock, being in it, and following the fear/uncertainy on this sub is going to have you make idiotic moves that cost you money and sours you on the whole ordeal. You'll call Saylor a mad idiot, or get angry about the mechanics, when the truth is that had you just held, you'd have made a ton of money. Historically speaking.

Did you fomo in at the transient top at 500 like the rest of r/WSB cause you got greedy? Well, that sucks.

You know, you could also just hold it, like you'd do any other stock, and be in a large positive in 3 months. Instead, you're pissy that you can't afford a yacht yet. You know, impatience, the hallmark of great investment, right?

Even Saylor explained himself in past interviews and the last earnings call that they expect the biggest moves of the stock to happen over a few days.

So with that said, check our "Start here!" sticky, do your due diligence, and figure out what you want to do. But if you do not spend any serious amount of time trying to understand how genius this entire play is, it's going to come across as a "PoNzi-SchEmE" or whatever, and you're going to lose money by panicking. All because some 21-year-old redditor who "swing trades" with his $3200 portfolio told you, angry that MSTR didn't make him Warren Buffet yet, that "Saylor bad/sucks/whatever".

Personally, I've posted a ton of (what I believe to be) great due diligence on this sub, amongst many others. As for sources, use your logical reasoning. What tends to happen in this world? How do people act and react? How does game theory work? Who's in power? Who's advising those in power? Why, to begin with, does Bitcoin hold value? Does Saylor know what he's talking about? Why would he go this hard now?

There are people on YouTube analysing the stock who are professors, seasoned investors, CFA's, phd's in economics, and so on. I'd trust their takes over the basement-dwelling armchair-investor on Reddit who's only ever made money on SPY calls in a bull-market.

The only way to do this play as retail, is you buy the stock, forget you hold it for a bit, and check back in 6 months when you made a lot of money. Stop the leverage if you don't understand it. Stop the options contracts if you aren't a semi-pro. And just buy the equity.

Or don't, if you don't want to do your DD.

NFA, DYOR.