Ubisoft’s fortunes are entirely dependent on Shadow’s success

2024 was a disaster year for Ubisoft. Outlaws only sold 1 million in its first month. XDefiant and Skull & Bones did worse. In fact, the latter only sold around 1 million since launching last February. And insiders estimate that it cost $200 million to develop. In the meantime, Ubisoft’s stock tanked, opening the company up to a potential buyout. The massive Chinese developer Tencent quickly sensed blood in the water and has been circling ever since.

Ubisoft has fought off buyouts in the past, and the Guillemot family who are the CEOs likely want to retain control of the company. And even if they are forced to sell, they would want to do so on favorable terms. But things are looking bad. Just recently there has been news that Ubisoft is taking decisive steps to reshape the company and save costs. It’s incredible that it’s taken this long for them to re-evaluate how badly they’ve managed the company these past several years.

Which brings us to Shadows. No one outside the company knows how much it has cost to make the game, but with the two delays, the amount has gone up. It is also the start of a new phase in the series and the game was given extra development time and additional people to work on it compared to other AC titles. We can assume that it’s a $250+ million project. The game has to not only recoup that money, it has to make up for the other losses Ubisoft had last year. That’s the only way for the company to right the ship before it sinks.

So what numbers do we need? Anything under 5 million would be a disaster. It would be a heavy blow that'd be impossible for Ubisoft to recover from. Well, how about 10 million then? Those are the numbers that Origins and Odyssey put up ,which were considered successes at the time. Honestly, I don't think it would be enough.  Nope. Shadows has to pull in Valhalla sales. Like 20 million units. That'd be enough to put investors at ease.

It’s crazy that this is how things stand. But Ubisoft is largely to blame for hitting this low. Now it is up to its flagship series to save it.