Job Dilemma, help?

Hey everyone, I could use some advice on a job dilemma I’m facing. I’m in the process of finalizing my move back to Dublin after spending some time working abroad. Returning home is definite, but I’m torn between two job offers and could use some perspective:

Option 1: A job at a company I know well and have worked for in the past. I really enjoy the work, know the culture, and have great relationships with the team. The salary starts at €38k, but there’s a strong chance (better than 50%) of a promotion within 12 months, which would bump it up to around €50k. It’s more of a familiar environment, and I know it’s a place where I’d feel comfortable and valued.

Option 2: A job at a different company where I’m a solid skill fit but don’t know much about the work culture or team dynamics. It’s a more senior role with significant responsibilities, and the salary is €65k. The contract is fixed for 2 years but renewable if things go well. For context, I’m 28, no dependents, and I have a girlfriend with plans to move in together. The higher salary could accelerate financial goals and give more immediate flexibility, but the unknowns make me a bit uneasy.

I’m curious to hear what others think. Am I overthinking this by even considering the lower-paying job given its familiarity, growth potential, and the team I enjoy? Or should I push myself into the more lucrative yet uncertain opportunity?