Osmanlı Yenilgisi Part 1: Pax Jagiellonica

“What if the Ottomans lost the Battle of Varna?” Sultan Murad II was vanquished at Varna, a near-victory for the ascendant Ottoman state. However, the victorious King Władysław III would shatter his armies with a cavalry charge that broke through to the Sultan’s camp, resulting in his capture. The second catastrophic defeat in 42 years would permanently neuter the Ottoman state, as Murad’s successor Mehmed II ‘İktidarsız” has been unable to prevent territorial losses beyond those enforced in the Peace of Szeged. Italian influence over Greece would drastically increase with another Italian adventurer’s invasion creating the Duchy of Thessaly, while the receding Ottoman threat would see Skanderbeg consolidate his rule over Albania with Venetian assistance. The Anatolian Beyliks exploited the weakness of the Ottomans to seize vast tracts of land, resulting in the loss of all lands beyond the Halys River. A scion of the deposed Karasıd dynasty would reclaim his throne in the Aegean beylik, with Genoese support. This was a mere preview of the growing feud for influence and control in the Aegean between the Italian maritime republics, and Genoa’s effective suzerainty over the Byzantine Empire gave them a temporary edge. Byzantium was able to retain a degree of control over Greece via their subjects, Athens and the Morea. Thessaly would also pursue fealty to the Empire to legitimize their rule, though Epirus would turn to Venice for their own needs. Beyond Greece, Bulgaria’s restoration under Fruzhin (now Ivan II Stratisimir would create a buffer between the Byzantine and Jagiellonian spheres, though the Tsardom itself desired to restore the old empire it descended from. King Władysław III was by far the largest beneficiary of the Crusade of Varna. Besides the legitimacy and prestige gains, he was able to extract fealty from many of the Balkan states, due to both being recognized as Defender of the Faith, and the inability of those states to oppose his will, having been depleted over recent decades resisting the Ottoman advance. In the Year of Our Lord 1450, the Balkans is a battleground of influence amongst Catholics, with only a few sovereign Orthodox states remaining in the region. As the Turkish threat recedes, the Romans breathe easier for a time, though already they have become a pawn in the games of greater powers. And as a potential new Catholic empire rises in Eastern Europe from the union of three realms, an era of Christian infighting seems to be on the horizon.